How much will the loan installments increase?  There are expectations

Loan installments continue to grow and there is no end in sight. This can come as a shock to people who have borrowed at rates close to zero.

For example, for a loan obtained in September 2021 for 700 thousand. PLN, for 25 years, on WIBOR3M basis, with a margin of 2.87%. The initial installment was 3,356 PLN, now it is 6,212 PLN. For a loan at an interest rate on the basis of WIBOR for a period of six months, the installment has increased from 3,371 PLN to 6,345 PLN.

Market prices that express expectations are not optimistic about the repayment of loans, because they indicate that the premiums will increase even more.

– Interest rate futures quotes show that in six months WIBOR 3M could reach 7.98%. In this case, the interest rate on our loan form will be up to 10.85 percent, and the premium will be PLN 6712. So it will be 100 percent. higher than in the initial payback period – according to Jaroslav Sadovsky, senior analyst at Expander.

Swiss franc loan holders are also experiencing a headache, or rather a wallet, because the Swiss currency exchange rate is rising, and central bank decisions to raise interest rates may push the premiums even further.

Expander’s calculations show, for example, a loan installment of 300,000 PLN, granted in 2008, with a margin of 1.4%, the average installment in 2019 was 1744 PLN, in 2021 – 1,892 PLN, at the beginning of June 2022 – 2,022 PLN, at the current rate and taking into account June, will raise the interest rate by 0.5 percentage point. It is PLN 21151. If interest rates in Switzerland rise to +0.75%, at the current exchange rate of the franc, the premium will be PLN 2316.

The class throws a lifebuoy in the form of so-called credit breaks, but only zloty loan holders will be able to take advantage of it. The law is already in the Senate and assumes that it will be possible to take advantage of the loan holidays from August and suspend the payment of four installments this year and four in the next.

People who want to get a mortgage are in a very difficult situation, because the increase in interest rates and stricter regulations of the Polish Financial Supervisory Authority have cut credit worthiness by half.

For many, this means that there is no opportunity to buy an apartment with a loan. The Monetary Policy Council raised interest rates by 75 basis points at the beginning of June this year. Thus, the reference rate NBP rose to 6%, the Lombard rate to 6.5%, and the deposit rate to 5.5%. However, mortgage loans are based on WIBOR rates in the market, which take into account the expected moves of the monetary policy board. The law providing a credit shield for borrowers “PLN” provides for moving away from the WIBOR ratio from the beginning of 2023 and introducing its replacement in the form of new rates.

Monica Krzyniak Sajevic

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