October 1, 2022

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High core inflation.  A record over the age of 21 has been broken

High core inflation. A record over the age of 21 has been broken

The average market expectation was 6.9 percent y/y, i.e. exactly as NBP core inflation calculated in March. The last time this indicator was higher was in December 2000, when it was calculated at 7.97%. annually. More specifically, it is about inflation without taking into account fuel and food prices, because there are different ways to calculate core inflation.

The highest measurement in history – 15.98 percent. – It was made in February 1998 and was only the second measurement in history, because the index has been calculated by the National Bank of Poland since January of that year.

Recall that “normal” inflation, that is The Consumer Price Index and Services (CPI) increased by 11 percent. y In March 2022, compared to 8.5%. general in January.

Core inflation excluding managed prices was 10.6% in March of this year. On an annual basis, compared to 8 per cent. in February. The core inflation rate, excluding the most volatile, was 7.9%. In March, compared to 7.5 percent. in February. Core inflation calculated using the 15% trimmed average was 7.8%. In March, compared to 7 percent. in February.

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According to economists at mBank Research, the most popular core inflation reading is not surprising, but it is interesting to look at the seasonally adjusted indicators.

Measures that exclude the jumpiest elements of inflation (15% lower, more volatile) are already beyond the peak. And then – in our opinion – the most popular base (gray) is also close to the top – they write on Twitter.

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