- The market is currently assuming a maximum of one or two increments of 0.25 pips. Percentage each in the next two meetings of the Monetary Policy Council
- The closest one might already be on Wednesday, September 7
- The expert notes that the current WIBOR prices confirm such a scenario
- In his opinion, the recently observed weakness of the economy indicates that the size and number of price increases will not be significant, and it can even be expected that in the near term it will be necessary to reduce rates.
- More such information can be found on the home page of Onet.pl
Market consensus is assumed One, maximum two hikes at the September-October meeting of 25 basis points (by 0.25 percentage point – ed.), which seems justified based on the available data on the state of the market, and may inspire optimism for people preparing to apply for a mortgage in the coming months – says Jacob Adam, credit expert Lendi, in agreement with these expectations.
– If WIBOR is less than the deposit rate, it will be profitable for banks to deposit money with the Central Bank (you will earn more than by lending to other banks). On the other hand, if WIBOR is above the Lombard rate, it will be more profitable to borrow money from the central bank than other banks in the market. And then, of course, WIBOR has to be at a level between the two interest rates, he explains.
– WIBOR’s behavior in recent months Indicate that this is indeed the case. When the market thought there was another 25 basis point rate hike in September, 3-month and 6-month WIBOR rates stopped at just over 7%. The consensus then assumed that the target value, among other things, deposit and Lombard rates would be 6.25 percent, respectively. and 7.25 percent, which satisfies the assumptions regarding WIBOR’s target value. After the first annualized inflation readings for August, expectations have shifted – even two rate hikes are expected. Effects can be seen in WIBOR charts. After a break of several weeks, interest rates began to rise slowly, gradually adjusting to the expected target interest rates set by the Monetary Policy Committee – says the expert.
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Bad news from the economy will limit interest rate hikes?
At the same time, he notes that interest rate policy It must be related to the economic situation. And here they came recently Bad information about PMI (Index for measuring the opinions of purchasing managers in private companies) for the local industry i A drop in GDP in the second quarter. In addition, according to him, the flow of capital from the euro to the dollar affects the zloty.
– we have Unprecedentedly weak currencymainly ATH (all-time highs – historical highs – ed.) on the most important pairs – this is a very important aspect when we talk about inflation, import of goods (the majority is settled in dollars with Asia, oil, etc.), crisis Energy, which, as many data indicate, will come in the next quarter – describes Jacob Adam.
According to him, it can be concluded that the level of interest rates in Poland is close to the peak.
Taking into account the deteriorating economic situation in many sectors, PMI readings, GDP, discouragement of inflation, and even the possibility of its downward trend, There is a chance to end the monetary tightening cycleHe predicts their easing in the near future, i.e. a fall in interest rates.
It offers several options on how to mitigate the effect of a foot augmentation.
– There are several solutions: leave government loans and use the saved money to overpay the loan, contact the bank to restructure the debt, and change the interest rate to a fixed (usually lower than variable) rate. The same bank, in particular, the transfer of the loan to another bank at a fixed or variable rate of interest with a margin lower than the current bank – lists.
By Jacek Frączyk, Business Insider Polska
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