Fuel prices: stability in the market

The Polsat Plus group and the Polsat Foundation together for children from Ukraine

In line with last week’s forecast by e-petrol.pl, at the beginning of the week there were reductions in gasoline and diesel prices at Polish refineries. Last week, after price fluctuations on the London Stock Exchange, gasoline became cheaper since Tuesday.

In the case of diesel fuel, every day was coming in a different direction – diesel was alternately cheaper and more expensive in the domestic market, as a result of which it is now more expensive than it was a week ago.

Today, on average, unleaded gasoline costs an average of PLN 95 per 1,000 liters, and diesel is PLN 7,044.20 net. A month ago, prices were PLN 535 higher for EU95 gasoline and PLN 218 for diesel.

Today, the difference between prices for base fuel at refineries is 246.40 PLN in favor of gasoline. However, this price relationship is not clearly visible at stations, and this is due to lower retail margins for station owners, who have to respond to refueling discount schemes announced by large and medium-sized fuel chains.

Last week saw a clear change in fuel prices at petrol stations again. Unleaded 95th gasoline became cheaper by 0.23 PLN and on Wednesday in retail it cost 7.51 PLN / liter, drivers of cars with diesel engines paid 7.56 PLN for their car fuel, an average of 0.10 PLN per liter of fuel less from the past. week. The price of autogas gas has also decreased by 0.06 PLN, which currently costs an average PLN 3.39 / liter.

Most likely, from Saturday, domestic fuel producers will introduce further adjustments to their wholesale price lists. The forecast of e-petrol.pl for this segment of the market for Tuesday indicates a possible stabilization of diesel oil prices, as well as a decrease in wholesale gasoline prices, albeit smaller than before.

For drivers, the decisions of Polish fuel producers mean that the price situation at gas stations will not change quickly either.

In the case of the famous 95th gasoline, in the third week of July, we can count on a slight downward correction – prices should be in the range of 7.46-7.57 PLN / liter, and refueling drivers should expect average prices of 7.52-7, 63 zlotys / Liter. Price fixation should also apply to car gas prices, depending on the region and type of station, you will pay 3.30-3.41 PLN / liter.

Oil returned to levels below $100 in the past week, which is what we saw recently before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The reasons for the downward changes are primarily concerns about the effects of the recession on the demand for fuel in the international market. This type of concern arose, inter alia, in the United States, where seeing a significant increase in interest rates was linked to an economic slowdown that would damage oil demand. Additionally, seeing demand constraints correlate with a further outbreak of COVID-19 in China, and these reports at the start of the week sent oil prices down more than $7.5.

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In the face of such a turn of events, it is hard to expect that US President Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia will make his calls for increased oil production in the region effective. Moreover, the low level of spare capacity of many members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) should not change in the short term, and supply can only be properly supplemented with higher levels in Saudi Arabia.

It should also be noted that according to the latest forecasts, OPEC expects global demand for oil to increase in 2023, but at a slower pace than in 2022. OPEC forecasts the situation much more optimistically than the International Energy Agency, while acknowledging that there will not be Escalatory wars in Ukraine, and inflation will not have a strong impact on global economic growth – which is perhaps not entirely believable.

Companies Gabriella Cousin, Jacob Bogoki, e-petrol.pl

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