After drastic increases in February and March, retail prices for diesel oil and gasoline have fallen sharply this week. On the other hand, LPG prices rose to record high levels.
Since a week We wrote about a record increase in fuel prices in Poland And about the record high prices at distributors. Gasoline Pb95 for more than 7 PLN/liter, and diesel for 8 PLN or more per liter As a result of the war shock on global fuel markets The massive depreciation of the zloty against the US dollar.
Fortunately, in the third week of March, the situation started to return to normal and fuel prices began to fall back from their record levels. According to data from BM Reflex, last week The average price of a liter of Pb95 gasoline was 6.67 PLN in Poland, which is 38 zlotys lower than the previous week. ON has become cheaper by 0.49 PLN / liter – up to 7.00 PLN per liter. On the other hand, car gas prices continued to rise, supported on average by PLN 3.80, that is, the most expensive in history.
Three factors contributed to the drop in prices for distributors. First, crude oil prices in London fell sharply. Brent oil barrel price It fell from over $130 to $97-107 in the past few days. Secondly, The zloty compensated for a large part of the war lossesThe USD/PLZ exchange rate fell from over 4.60 PLN to 4.27 PLN. And finally, thirdly, the situation on the London diesel market has been normalized, with stock prices falling from more than 1,400 USD to about 1,000 USD per ton.
All this was reflected in the decrease in wholesale prices on the Polish market. On March 18, PKN offered Orlen Ekodiesel at a price of 6,413 PLN / m3, which, after adding 8% VAT, gives about 6.93 PLN / liter. For comparison, the price of this fuel at the Płock Refinery on March 9 reached a record high of PLN 7,704 / m3. So, within 9 days, we saw a decrease in the wholesale price of diesel by about PLN 1,300, that is, by about PLN 1.39 total / m3. Liter.
This allowed Orlen to significantly reduce retail prices.
The situation was calmer in the wholesale gasoline market. On Friday, at the Płock Refinery, Eurosuper95 gasoline costs 5,657 PLN / m3, which is about PLN 6.11 / liter after adding VAT. It’s PLN 0.88 / liter cheaper than it was a week ago, but still very expensive by historical standards. However, with this wholesale price, there is still plenty of room for lower retail prices.
The situation at service stations would have been much worse had it not been for the February reduction in the value-added tax rate, which for six months (And maybe until the end of the year) reduced from 23% to 8%. With a value-added tax of 23%, petrol prices at stations will currently exceed PLN 7 / liter, and diesel fuel will cost more than PLN 8 / liter.
Analyzing retail fuel prices, it is worthwhile to realize that the situation on world markets remains unstable. The stock price of crude oil can change by 7-8% during the day. Increased volatility also prevails in the zloty market. Moreover, with these big changes in wholesale prices, changes in retail prices (up and down) also happen much faster than we are used to. In addition, Russian oil continues to flow to European refineries. However, if the European Union decides to impose a ban on Russian oil, there will be an upper limit on oil prices, since Russia supplies nearly 5 million barrels per day and This loss cannot be compensated in the short term.
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