February 4, 2023

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Five of the most interesting events in the economy right now

The European Commission will want to increase membership fees from countries belonging to the European Union. This was announced by the deputy head of the committee responsible for economic affairs, Valdis Dombrovskis.

The EU budget needs to be replenished, as many of its reserves have already been used up in the early years – said Dombrovskis, referring to the EU’s financial perspective 2021-27. He spoke Wednesday at the Bloomberg Conference. The agency writesHe indicated that the right moment to decide on additional EU contributions would be the review of the implementation of the long-term budget, scheduled for mid-year.

The EU faces the potential for major unplanned expenditures related to two issues. First, it is financial support for Ukraine during the war, and then participation in its reconstruction. Secondly, it is a support scheme for European companies, similar to that which cost more than 300 billion dollars. Made in the United States.

The Americans have adopted a set of incentives, among other things, encouraging international companies to move their production to the United States. In this case, the federation, in order not to lose its competitive edge, should respond with a similar program, but somehow finance it. So far, there has been an idea to issue common EU debt for this purpose, but there are concerns that some EU countries will not agree to it. This, for example, is not supported by the German government.

The alternative to borrowing this money is to collect it from member states in the form of additional contributions. Dombrovskis did not specify whether he intended to increase the level of their contributions on a permanent basis, or whether it would be additional one-off transfers from European capitals to the EU budget.

See also: Poland is among the inflation leaders in Europe. The closer we got to the war, the worse it got

2. Concerns about job losses are growing, and hopes for increased income are waning

The mood in the Polish labor market is deteriorating more clearly, which can be interpreted as a positive phenomenon in the context of the fight against inflation. from the report Labor Market, Education, Competencies, Current Trends and Research Results Prepared by Group G of the Polish Agency for Enterprise Development show that the favorable conditions for the emergence of wage pressures in firms are disappearing.

In the first class Fewer and fewer employees say they expect a salary increase. A year ago, in January, there were 54.5% of them, now (that is, in November, because the research was carried out at that time), there are only 35% of them, with wage increases expected mainly by people aged 18-24 years, that is, those who already have the lowest income on average, because they are at the beginning of their careers. At the same time with 2.9 percent. Up to 14 percent increased the percentage of people who fear their salary will drop.

The percentage of people who feared losing their jobs increased from 27.7% to 27.7%. a year ago to 42 per cent. right Now. The report also states that 76% of people who are dissatisfied with their workplace are actively browsing new job advertisements, and thus are preparing to change. All this means that the position of entrepreneurs on the labor market should improve: since people begin to look for a new job more and more, they will not need additional encouragement to do so by offering a salary increase, and on the one hand, employees are afraid of becoming redundant. about need. , They usually do not have much determination to fight for higher salaries in the place where they work. Across the economy, lower wage growth should help curb inflation.

3. United States: Inflation is declining, industrial production and retail sales as well

We have other data confirming the rapid decline in inflation in the United States. The producer price index fell 0.5 percent in December compared to November and had been expected to decline by only 0.1 percent. On a year-over-year basis, we have a decrease of 7.3 percent. up to 6.2 percent, i.e. up to The lowest level since April 2021. Core PPI also fell, from 6.2% to 6.2%. Up to 5.5 percent here too, the data is better than expected.

The data on retail sales confirms the fact that demand in the US market is declining, which should also help reduce inflation. It fell 1.1% in December. compared to November. A decline of 0.9% was expected. Excluding fuel and motor vehicles, sales of all other goods and services fell 0.7%, and were expected to remain flat.

Also published industrial production data And it looks bad too. It decreased in December by 0.7 percent, which is also more than expected, compared to November. On a yearly basis, production in December was only 1.6 percent higher than in December. Higher than in December 2021 – This is the weakest increase since March 2021. U.S. factory capacity utilization fell from 79.4 percent to 79.4 percent. to 78.8 percent

All of this data indicates that demand in the US economy is declining, which may encourage the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. Therefore, the financial market initially reacted positively to them. However, market sentiment was spoiled by the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Lewis James Bullard, saying that the Fed’s policy is not yet sufficiently restrictive and that inflation will not fall as quickly as financial markets expect. As a result, the US stock markets ended the day clearly lower yesterday.

See also: Major shareholder sells part of Pepco shares. One and a half billion zlotys on the table

4. The government already has a bill on limiting the bulk purchase of apartments

invoice restrictive The possibility of buying flats in bulk is already available in the Prime Minister’s Office. Restrictions apply to entities with at least five apartments; According to the proposed regulation, they can purchase in the future One apartment every 12 months pays the tax on civil law transactions at the rate of 6%. property values.

New recipes It will not be applied But single family homes. Nor will they apply in the event of apartment inheritance, donation, court ruling, reverse mortgage or lifetime annuity.

The new regulations are about reducing the demand for apartments from funds that buy real estate in bulk, which then profit by renting it out or simply waiting for it to increase in value and then selling it at a profit. Reducing the action of such funds in the market should cause home prices to grow more slowly or not at all, which in turn would make them more readily available to other “ordinary” buyers.

See also: The fight against inflation will be long and arduous. Don’t be fooled by the bearish main indicator

5. PGNiG cuts gas prices for businesses by 19 percent.

PGNiG offers reduced gas prices to business customers. Prices will drop by 19%.

Discount applies Small and medium enterprises using the “Gas for Business” offer. You remember PGNiG in your contactThat there are several hundred thousand of them. The change came into effect yesterday and will continue until the end of winter, that is, until the end of March. PGNiG can change companies’ prices on its own overnight, because new tariffs in this market do not need to be approved by the Energy Regulatory Office, as in the case of gas for homes.

PGNiG states that they have lowered prices because they are also down in the wholesale markets. On the Polish Energy Exchange, a gas contract with delivery in the second quarter costs about PLN 300 per MWh today. In November and early December, it was above PLN 600 per MWh. In this context, he reduced the price by only 19 percent. It may be disappointing, but PGNiG explains that when prices in the markets rose sharply a year ago, they didn’t pass on the entire price increase to customers, only a portion of it. Thus, in the case of final consumers, upward and downward price changes are smaller than changes in the more volatile wholesale market.

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