“Assuming a significant drop in activity in the middle of this year, The Polish economy may develop at a rate of about 4%. All in 2022.” – Economists think City.
Finally good news. GDP growth may be higher
However, bank specialists argue, the data and information available so far Allow some more optimism than it was a few weeks ago. “If growth is well below 4%, economic activity will suffer much more than seems likely at present,” the Citi study stated.
In their view, the current economic situation is best described as: “The slowdown is real, but it is not visible in the average data for 2022.”
“Our updated forecast assumes a 3.9% increase in Poland’s GDP in 2022 (+0.3 percentage point compared to previous forecasts), and a 2.7% increase in 2023. In the near future, thanks to refugee spending, private consumption should remain high, but the probability Rising energy bills and diminishing savings will eventually affect consumption in 2023.”
And what about inflation in Poland?
The report’s authors noted that “our inflation forecasts assume a possible decline in oil prices later this year, but if this does not materialize, the CPI may be higher.”
Economists emphasize that the main risk factor for forecasts is the geopolitical situation, which at the moment seems unpredictable.
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