September 29, 2022

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Economy, Recession, Energy Crisis and Consequences of War in Ukraine.  "We have entered a period of great uncertainty"

Economy, Recession, Energy Crisis and Consequences of War in Ukraine. “We have entered a period of great uncertainty”

There is a possibility that the world will again be divided into camps, a little in a different configuration than it was during the Cold War, but this will mean a retreat from globalization – said in “Fakty po Faktach” on TVN24, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, A. Beata Javorcic. According to PwC’s chief economic advisor, Prof. Witold Orłowski “We have been in a crisis for several years.”

It seems to me that we have entered a period of great uncertainty. We have a war on the threshold of the European Union, and there is a real danger that in the winter we will have an energy crisis in Europe and weather changesWe’ll start feeling sooner than we think. In addition, the geopolitical tectonic plates began to move, they began to move, and we do not know where they will stop and when – said the Professor. Beata Javorcic.

“There is also the possibility that the world will split into camps again, in a slightly different configuration than it was during the Cold War, but this would represent a regression from globalization, the international cooperation that brought us many economic benefits over the past decades,” she said.

“We have been in a crisis for several years.”

According to the professor. Witold Orłowski “We have been in a crisis for several years.” – It is possible that when you look at this beginning from the perspective of the first 20 or 30 years of the twenty-first century, economists would probably argue that it was a single crisis – he said.

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– If we read about war, it seemed that when it begins, it is the end of the world, and the world stops, and we realize the disaster. Now rockets are falling 300 kilometers from us, but our lives have not changed in any fundamental way. There is anxiety and a sense of uncertainty in the military and security sphere. In any case, in the financial field, we have felt that at least since 2007, when the myth of this great financial stability was shattered – he said.

According to the professor. Witold Orłowski in Poland at the moment “We are heading towards a recession”. It is clear to me that we will face a recession by the end of the year. We probably have a so-called technical and statistical stagnation (at the moment – ed.), but that’s not true, it’s a statistical delusion. He predicted that a real recession is likely to await us early in the year.

According to the professor. Beata Javorcic, the result of the current global situation may be “a return to the country that plays a greater role in the economy.” “Once the populists take power, there is a lot to spoil,” she said.

lignite mine in czech republicPAP / EPA / MARTIN DIVISEK

inflation. ‘It’s a global phenomenon’

TVN24 guests also talked about inflation. It will be very difficult for any central bank to prevent the inflation that we are seeing. It is not only a Polish or European phenomenon, it is a global one. Especially in Europe, this inflation correlates with spikes energy prices Javorcik was saying. She pointed out that “gas prices are ten times higher than they were in the past decade.”

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On the other hand – Javorcik said on TVN24 – the prices of other raw materials, such as nickel, are falling in world markets, wheat prices They are going down and the markets are expecting a further drop in these prices. “There is a real chance that this inflation will come down on its own,” she said.

Main image source: PAP / EPA / MARTIN DIVISEK