February 4, 2023

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Demografia w Polsce. GUS nie ma dobrych wieści: społeczeństwo cały czas się starzeje, mediana wieku to 42 lata

Demographics of Poland. GUS: The mean age is 42 years

The age pyramid looks less and less like a pyramid. The intensification is gradually going upwards and affects that we, as a society, are simply aging – said the head of the Central Statistical Office, Dr. Dominic Rosekrot, during the conference summing up the third demographic conference.

Demographics of Poland.  The Central Bureau of Statistics does not have good news: society is getting older all the time, the average age is 42 years
Photo: Natalie Rench/ / Clash

At the conference summarizing the third demographic conference in Poland, the head of the Central Statistical Office, Dr. Dominik Rosekrot, spoke, who presented the demographic situation of Poland in light of the analysis of the results of the National Population and Housing Census 2021.

Referring to previously presented data, Among other things on the population of Poland, which in 2021 reached 38,036,118 people. Of these, 22,748,772 people live in cities and 15,287,346 live in rural areas.

He explained that “the cities have seen a slight decline, and the villages have seen a slight increase. This is due to migration from the big cities, from the city centers to the borders, and the surrounding communes.”

Referring to the age pyramid, he indicated that in the younger age groups there is a minimum predominance of boys, and in the older groups there is an excess of women, which is related to the long life expectancy of women.

“This pyramid looks less and less like a pyramid. The bulge is gradually moving upwards and has the effect that we, as a society, are simply aging” – he explained. Communes, where the percentage of the population aged 65 and over is 20%, are mainly in Podlaskie, Świętokrzyskie, Lodzki and Lubelskie counties.

The mean age was 42 years. For comparison, in 2011 it was 38 years old. “You can calculate the aging index, the demographic aging index, or the dependency ratio. They all testify to the process of deepening the aging of society,” he added.

Referring to people with disabilities, he explained that in the perspective of 10 years, there are more of them.
According to him, this is related to the general aging of the population. In 2021, fewer than 3 million women declared themselves disabled, and there were fewer than 2.5 million such men.

education

“We can see that in a 10-year perspective we see some remarkable progress, and the educational boom that we have seen continues in the last decade. This leads to a change in the structure in which people with higher education account for 23 percent. In the previous census it was still just over 17 percent “. Rozkrut noted.

In 2021 exactly, there were 23.1% in Poland. Population aged 13 and over with a higher education, 32.4%. With a secondary education, 19.6 percent. 2.8 percent. middle school 11.3%. primary and 2.9 percent. With incomplete primary education or without education. 8 percent did not specify the education of Poles.

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“Obviously there are differences between men and women. In general, women are better educated than men. These differences are very significant.

The unemployment

The head of the Central Bureau of Statistics also mentioned unemployment. In 2021, the unemployment rate is 3.6%. It was 3.8% for men and 3.4% for women. For comparison In 2011, the unemployment rate was 12 percent. , among men 11.6 percent, and among women 12.5 percent.

“We were dealing with a decrease in unemployment in all provinces. Of course, the spatial distribution, there is nothing to hide, remains the same. Two regions have always dominated the unemployment table for 30 years – Warminesko-Mazursky and Zakodenepomorsky. Here, not much has changed, “- he said.

The largest percentage increase in the number of workers was recorded in Mazowieckie Voivodeship (21.6%), Pomerania (20%), Malopolskie Voivodeship (18.7%). On the other hand, the lowest increase was recorded in Lubelskie Voivodeship (4.4%), Świętokrzyskie (6.2%) and Podlaskie (8.6%).

Fertility rate and family policy of the government

Deputy Minister for Family and Social Policy Barbara Socha said that Poland will face the demographic problem for many years. “They are with us for a long time and they will stay for a long time because demographic changes are not changes that progress from year to year, so the impact on them, if at all possible, will take many years, and that is what happens in the 2040 demographic. The strategy is about, ”- said Deputy Minister Socha .

She stated that the demographic strategy is a government document adopted in November this year. After nearly two years of analytics, research and consulting. “It shows all the conditions that affect fertility,” said Socha, “because we narrow the issue of strategy to one problem. There is no mention of mortality, migration, or other demographic phenomena.”

And she stressed that “without solving the fertility problem, we cannot think calmly about our future.” “I strongly believe that the implementation of these directions of the solutions that we are planning over the next 20 years, because we assume that, will increase the fertility rate,” – said Deputy Minister Socha.

She noted that there is “a very large gap in Poland between the declared fertility rate and the actual rate.” “This means that we have the possibility that Poles want to have children, but they face a number of barriers and problems that prevent or delay plans, which of course leads to a decrease in the fertility rate,” – said Socha.

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As she points out, it is important to be aware of all institutions and ministries – the entire government, not just the Ministry of Family and Social Policy. – The deputy prime minister said, “Every ministry has its role.” Agriculture and social policy.

In a message to conference participants, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki wrote that “fertility plays a fundamental role in influencing the future of our country in terms of economic development, public services, the value of the state and local government budgets, and its impact on the labor market and the pension insurance system.”

He pointed out that the government was aware from the beginning of the changes it was participating in and provided solutions aimed at solving demographic problems. “We have strengthened families’ budgets, giving us the opportunity to combine family and professional life in the most harmonious way. The programs“ Family 500+ ”, Dobry Start, Maluch Plus, Family Welfare Capital and“ For Life ”are our original contribution to improving the situation,” Prime Minister Morawiecki noted. .

“In the demographic strategy for 2040, we have identified three areas in which we can work effectively: strengthening the family, where children are born; removing barriers for potential parents and improving the quality of management and implementation of policies at the local government and central level – these are the goals we want to pursue, ”- the head of government noted . He explained that as part of these goals, “12 more detailed measures have been identified, which will create the conditions for making decisions about expanding families.”

He hoped that this would bring together the activities of the central administration, local governments, social organizations, civil movements, churches and religious associations, because only such activities could prove effective in changing social behavior.

How long should the work week be?

Foreign Minister in Desk The President of the Republic of Poland, Pałów Szroth, noted that “there are currently about a million refugees from Ukraine living in Poland, who have taken refuge from the raging war and constant Russian aggression.” He estimated that this “makes sense demographically, although we don’t yet know how long this migration will continue, and how much it will increase due to harsh winters and an energy crisis caused by Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure.”

Dean of the University of Warsaw Prof. Dr. Hub. Al-Wajzi Nowak pointed out that there are more and more people in the world, and it is a big problem related to environmental protection. There are more than 8 billion of us today. He said that in Europe, including Poland, the population is shrinking and this will be a problem if we assume that the immigration process, as in the case of the European Union, is an open process.

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He noted that there was a strong debate around the world about what the workweek should be. “More than 30 years ago, this happened in France and Germany, where the analysis was based on the position of the French philosopher and economist Albert Michael, which does not really exist, that is, it was a group of economists and sociologists who wrote a research paper where they faced the following question: “How many hours Do you need it to live with dignity? According to scientists, 30-32 hours a week will be enough. He said that after these changes were introduced by some companies, the effect was different. A few years later, the previous standards returned.

A few years later a discussion also began in Holland and Israel, and it was concluded that in order to maintain the standard of living in developed accidents, it was sufficient to work from 20 to 24 hours a week. This was not carried out because it was feared that people would not know how to do it in their spare time. – They probably won’t go to the theater or read books, ”- said the Rector of the University of Warsaw, emphasizing that“ there has never been the courage to introduce profound changes in individual countries.

He noted that the pandemic and environmental problems showed that we can function without each other and that criminal cases did not increase as expected. Therefore, in many places around the world, including the United States, it has been decided that a 30-hour work week is sufficient. Whether that’s the case – I don’t know, said Professor Nowak.

He assessed that “from an economic or financial point of view, it appears that the problem of shrinking population will not be as great a problem as it appears from a social point of view.” “Digitization, automation and robotics completely change the reality of the modern world, which can lead to dissatisfaction,” added the rector.

The Third Demographic Congress is being organized in Poland at the initiative of the State Population Council. He will present the results of the 2021 National Population and Housing Census and analyze the changes that have occurred in the status and structure of the Polish population since 2012.

Aleksandra Kyoczykowska, Magdalena Grunek

source:Door