Chief Economist at the Ministry of Finance: Our recent inflation expectations are 'disconnected from reality'

Cherniki in an interview with PAP Biznes On Wednesday, he said, the Treasury will present its macroeconomic forecast only in April. He also admitted that the latest inflation expectations Ministry of Finance at the level of 3.3 percent. “Obviously it is completely detached from the current reality, but at the time of its creation, it was within the market consensus.”

a. Paweł Wojciechowski, economist and Former Finance Minister, spoke to Recently, such indications show a mockery and disrespect for the MPs. – This is by far the worst government budget I have seen, because it is anti-development, pro-inflation, based on unrealistic assumptions and on the bad practice of crowding out expenditures in extrabudgetary funds – Wojciechowski evaluated the Budget Law.

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Inflation in 2022 will not leave

Cherniki stated that anti-inflation is a shield and Polish arrangement In the first stage, they will be protective. However, over time, they may impede the descent from the inflationary mound, especially if other similar steps are taken.

In 2023, inflation should already fall, but 2022 will be one of the main factors. We will note what the readings are and how that will translate into wages and how the dial will work

– said the chief economist at the Ministry of Finance.

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The chief economist of the Ministry of Finance also said that forecasting inflation is very difficult at the moment. This is due to many factors that are not covered by traditional projections. These include disruptions in supply chains or increases Sin energy.

He also admitted that financing the anti-inflation shield would not be a problem, and that 10 billion PLN “is not a huge amount for the budget.” He added that the ministry’s accounts indicate that inflation In 2022, it will bring additional revenue to the budget in the main tax categories – income tax, value-added tax, value-added tax in the amount of approximately PLN 10 billion.

Cherniki said it was approved by Energy Regulatory Office The increase in electricity and gas tariffs raises inflation expectations for the next year by 1-2 percentage points. percent

According to forecasts available by analysts from commercial banks, inflation in 2022 may reach about 7-8 percent.

– said the government economist.

The mysterious situation in 2022

He added that there is great uncertainty about the economic situation next year. This is due to the uncertainty about when EU funds will flow into Poland From the National Reconstruction Plan The epidemic continues.

Our forecast assumes that Poland’s GDP will rise by 4.6% in 2022. The uncertainty is currently very high, so at this point it is difficult to determine the economic reality for the next year.

– Economic counted. He added that when making budget forecasts, the Ministry of Finance expected that the KPO would raise PKB in the years 2022-2024 by 0.4 points. Percentage, however, made it clear that it is difficult to say how EU money will affect GDP in certain quarters and years.

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