June 8, 2023

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Belarus. Russia. ISW about the meeting between Putin and Lukashenko. Will Belarus join the war in Ukraine?

Alexander Lukashenko, during Vladimir Putin’s visit to Belarus on Monday, likely blocked Russian attempts to promote integration between the two countries, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its latest analysis. The center estimates that Belarus’ participation in the Russian invasion of Ukraine “is still unlikely.” The secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine said that the Russian president pressured the Belarusian leader to agree to send Belarusian forces to the war with Ukraine.

The Institute for the Study of War noted that Putin and Lukashenka have not spoken publicly about the Russian invasion UkraineAnd they claimed it Belarus Western countries are threatened.

Lukashenka uses rhetoric to defend Belarus’ borders against the West and For thisTrying to avoid participating in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Smiles, conversations “rich in results”, no questions about Ukraine. Putin in Minsk >>>

Vladimir Putin and Alexander LukashenkoPAP / EPA / PAVEL BEDNYAKOV

Belarus’ participation in war ‘still unlikely’

According to the Institute of Internal Affairs, “Belarusian participation in Putin’s war against Ukraine remains unlikely” and “The fact that Putin apparently accepted the topic of talks proposed by Lukashenko, without persuading him to amend it, indirectly confirms this assessment.”

Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko kremlin.ru

Analysts also paid attention to the official denial of the Kremlin, which announced this Russia “I am not interested in accommodating anyone.” And they assess it as “an attempt to cover up the fact that Putin is desperately trying to drag Lukashenko into the war and apparently failing again.”

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Ukraine is preparing for an attack from Belarus

– Putin demands direct intervention from Belarus in the war with our country. According to our information, neither Lukashenka nor his compatriots really want to do this, Oleksey Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, said on Monday. – But the Russians will now do everything possible and impossible to force Lukashenko to take part in this. We will see what decision will be made in the near future.”

He stressed that Ukraine is preparing for any developments, and recalled that another meeting of the Ukrainian General Staff will be held on Sunday, the subject of which is the situation in Belarus. “We understand what is happening, and what we need to prepare for,” stressed the NSDC secretary.

Main image source: PAP / EPA / PAVEL BEDNYAKOV