Are we in danger of blackouts this winter? Do we have the right amount of coal and gas? These are the main questions of the day. MEPs from the EU and Poland 2050 parliamentary group asked the rulers.
It was answered by the Ministry of Climate and Environment. We got to its content. An optimistic message pierces through. Coal should not run out, as well as gas – reassures the government. However, there is another important point missing from the document. There is no information on whether we have a guaranteed supply of crude oil and LPG.
The embargo on Russian oil will take effect in December 2022, and further sanctions will be imposed in February 2023
This information is important for at least two reasons. At the end of this year, the long-term Russian oil supply contract that PKN Orlen signed with Rosneft will expire.
in addition to In December 2022, the sixth package of EU sanctions came into effect. Buying, importing or transporting crude oil and petroleum products from Russia to the European Union. In turn, in February 2023, a ban on the import of refined petroleum products from Russia by sea will enter into force.
Climate Ministry: Coal will certainly not run out
But let’s start with what’s in the government’s answer. We will certainly not run out of coal – officials argue. According to the Climate Ministry, in response to MPs, in the period from July to the end of the year Coal supply has been contracted to more than 10 million tons. Total coal imports this year are expected to reach about 16 million tons, nearly 7 million tons more than in 2021, when 9.1 million tons were imported.
In addition, from January to April 2023, state treasury companies plan to import another 8 million tons of thermal coal.
At the same time, the ministry acknowledges – unlike in previous years – that the domestic energy industry should use larger quantities imported charcoal. The resort explains it by saying that The mines redirected the coal supply to the weakest beneficiaries, that is, households, farmers, and small local heating plants. The ministry also admits that this has a negative impact on the coal supply of the so-called professional energy industry (these are the entities whose main task is the production and transmission of electricity).
The rest of the article is under the video
See also: “There will be enough coal in Poland for 200 years.” The former minister admits: These are my words. there is a “but”
Are we in danger of being cut off? The ministry is reassuring
The ministry also ensures that we have insurance for gas supplies. At the moment, we can count on deliveries from several directions.
- liquefied natural gas station in Świnoujście It can accept 6.2 billion cubic meters of gas;
- Malno نقطة point On the border with Germany guarantees 6.2 billion cubic meters;
- Contact with Lithuania About 1.9 billion Czech – 0.5 billion cubic meters;
- through contact with Slovakia We can get 5.7 billion cubic meters;
- And the Baltic gas pipelineAs of January 2023, it will have a capacity of 10 billion cubic meters. annually.
When asked about plans to combat the crisis in the event of a power outage, the governors also indicated in response to MPs that there is currently no risk of a power supply interruption. “The operator of the transport system, such as Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne, has a wide range of means to ensure continuity of supplies” – reads the letter from the Ministry of Climate.
What about crude oil and LPG? Orlen is a trade secret
As we wrote above, the government document lacks information on whether we have provided crude oil supplies. This is important because, as mentioned, at the end of this year, the long-term contract for crude oil supply under the contract signed by PKN Orlen with Rosneft will expire at the end of this year.
In addition, at the end of this year and in February 2023, further bans related to the ban on the import of crude oil and petroleum products from Russia come into force.
In the document of the Ministry of Climate, we will not find any information about it. We asked the Ministry of Climate and Environment about this. We asked whether Poland has guaranteed supplies of both crude oil and petroleum-derived fuels from destinations other than Russia. The ministry indicated that it will respond to us as soon as possible. However, until the publication of the article, no information had been received from the ministry.
We also sent similar questions to Orlen. In response, the company reported that: “Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, PKN Orlen has completely abandoned the purchase of Russian oil delivered by sea. As for the remaining questions, the company does not comment on its current operating activities.”
Orlen should take these questions more seriously. still It is not known what contracts we will exchange for Russian oil, nor is there a guaranteed supply of LPGwhich we also got from the eastern direction – says Marek Kosovsky, former president of PGNiG, in an interview with money.pl.
The situation had become quite dangerous. May it not turn out that when we cannot buy Russian oil, we will not have it at all And the carbon crisis will repeat itself – he warns.
There is a great race for Arab oil in the world
Recall: Daniel Obajtik recently announced on Twitter that the company is in talks about the possibility of collaborating with Saudi Aramco.
In January of this year, PKN Orlen signed a long-term contract with the Saudis to supply 20 million tons of crude oil annually, or 45 percent. Order from Orlen and Lotos combined. Saudi Aramco is also a buyer of Lotus spare parts. Saudi institution He will become a shareholder of the Gdansk refinery.
Will Saudi Arabia replace Russian oil? This thesis has been put forward for a long time. But the new contract with the Saudis won’t come cheap. I see no reason for them to sell their raw materials to us at a cheaper rate, comments Jacob Bogoki, an expert on e-gasoline.
Meanwhile, the global oil market has become more tense. In addition, the hot weather is increasing due to the fact that there is not much time left before the entry into force of the following EU sanctions related to the ban on the import of Russian oil. Therefore, all companies are trying to guarantee themselves oil supplies from other directions. The great race for Arab oil has begun.
However, the market situation is complicated OPEC’s latest decision On plans to reduce oil production. Therefore, it is expected that there will be a problem with the availability of this raw material, and Its price will go up even more, which will also translate into increases at gas stations.
But Marios Baty, an expert at the Warsaw Institute, is optimistic.
The crude oil market is so competitive that there will be a lot of raw materials. Russian oil can be replaced. However, the question of price remains – Confirms.
The Russian oil embargo poses a problem with diesel and LPG supplies
Experts point out another problem also related to the entry into force of subsequent sanctions against Russia. Mateusz Pajek, Central and Eastern Europe analyst at Espiris Consulting, states that the ban, which will take effect in February 2023, will also apply to Russian motor fuels. This will have a negative impact on the availability of diesel and LPG.
It would be another shock to Europe. Diesel stocks in northwest Europe are expected to reach their lowest level in at least 12 years, according to forecasts by consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
Until now, Europe has been dependent on diesel imports from Russia. For 20 years, the Russians supplied the European Union with 15-25 million tons of this fuel annually. Now it will be necessary to replace fuel imported from Russia with supplies from other directions. There is also an option to increase diesel production in the European Union. What can it end?
The rapid decline in diesel supplies to Europe could lead to a temporary shortage in the fuel market – says Mateusz Bajc.
The expert notes that a similar problem may also apply to LPG, since most of these raw materials were also imported from Russia and Belarus.
Until we secure the lanes LPG supply from ARA . ports [porty w Amsterdamie, Rotterdamie i Antwerpii – przyp. red.] Whether it is Germany, or we will not build new ports for importing LPG in Poland, it will be impossible to get this fuel at current prices – says Mateusz Bajc directly. You have to take into account that the price of LPG will also rise significantly.
We will necessarily participate in a world race
Andre Sikora, head of the Institute for Energy Studies, thinks so If we want to become independent of fuel supplies from Russia, we are forced to participate in the global race, Which unfortunately means that you have to take into account that fuel prices will be higher and higher.
The expert also draws attention to the technological problem. Crude oil imported from other directions has different parameters than Russian oil, which necessitates additional challenges for technicians. On the other hand, in the case of LPG, there is also a logistical problem, because in Poland we do not have a large storage capacity for this raw material.
Marek Kosovsky adds that the LPG market is not just about 2.5 million passenger cars that use this fuel. It also revolves around a large number of homes being heated with it.
The expert also believes that the issue of securing the fuel supply is a priority in extreme situations, such as the possibility of a power outage. – Generators in hospitals and other public institutions will not work without fuel – he reminds.
Agnieszka Zielińska, money.pl . journalist
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